What the data tells us about Max Verstappen, Ferrari and McLaren’s chances in the British GP

Just a day after Max Verstappen complained about an “unbelievable” amount of understeer in the Red Bull RB21, he suddenly secured pole position for the Formula 1 British Grand Prix.

According to Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko, the new floor has improved the car’s performance, though the Austrian mainly credited what he called “the Max factor”. While the McLaren drivers left some time on the table at the end of Q3, Lewis Hamilton admitted to a mistake in Vale, and Charles Leclerc cursed himself seven times in a row over the team radio, Verstappen delivered when it mattered most.

Comparing Verstappen and Piastri’s qualifying benchmarks

Another key element is undoubtedly the car’s set-up, which Red Bull overhauled after a difficult Friday, opting for very low downforce. That brings potential downsides – difficulties in the lower-speed corners and possibly some more instability in high-speed curves – but Verstappen handled it impressively well in qualifying. The upside? Higher top speed, as clearly shown in the GPS data.

In the below comparison, Verstappen’s fastest Q3 lap is compared with Piastri’s quickest run in Q3 – his first one. The track map on the left shows all the straights highlighted in blue – Red Bull territory. Verstappen hit 313km/h at the end of the main straight, 4km/h faster than Piastri. This helped him carry more speed into the sweeping Turns 1 and 2, though McLaren’s higher-downforce set-up showed its strength in medium- and low-speed corners. Piastri had better speed through The Loop, for instance.

After Verstappen extended the gap again on the Wellington Straight, the pattern repeated in Brooklands and Luffield. Piastri maintained higher minimum speeds and stronger traction out of these corners, thanks to the McLaren’s set-up choice. Approaching Copse, Verstappen again topped out at 320km/h versus Piastri’s 316km/h. That advantage grew in the high-speed section from Copse through Maggotts and Becketts, where Verstappen consistently had an 8km/h edge – significant enough to extend his lead to almost three tenths by that point.

In the final sector, however, Verstappen lost time, particularly in Vale and Club and on the exits of those turns. These are traction zones where McLaren is stronger, but not enough to claim pole. With the low-downforce set-up and above all a very well-executed lap, Verstappen held on by 0.103s to claim another impressive pole position, his fourth of the season.

Foto door: F1-Tempo

Foto door: F1-Tempo

Long-run approach: McLaren vs Verstappen and Ferrari

Even more important for Sunday’s race is a look at the long runs, which shows an interesting picture.

Verstappen was far from happy with the RB21’s balance on Friday, complaining about understeer. Yet Helmut Marko concluded the long runs looked “surprisingly good” for Red Bull, a statement that is backed by data. According to PACETEQ’s analysis, Verstappen showed the fastest average over the long runs on Friday.

However, there’s a key caveat, visible in the second graphic below, relating to tyre wear. Both McLaren drivers showed significantly less degradation than Verstappen and Ferrari, suggesting two different approaches to the long runs.

Examining lap-by-lap data, it becomes clear that Verstappen and Ferrari started aggressively, while McLaren opted for a different approach: slower early on, seemingly led by a delta time, but more consistent over the entire run.

These are two long-run strategies teams can use. The Verstappen/Ferrari approach helps gather tyre wear data by pushing hard early on, to get a clear picture of the maximum wear and use those findings on Sunday. McLaren’s approach was more consistent and more representative for a longer stint. Importantly, all of Friday’s long runs were shorter than actual race stints, meaning McLaren’s lower degradation is not fully reflected in the numbers below.

Over a full stint, McLaren may therefore well have the edge over Verstappen based on the lower degradation per lap, but Red Bull and Ferrari probably wouldn’t start stints as aggressively on Sunday. Plus, Verstappen’s set-up and car balance are very different now compared to Friday.

With this in mind, one thing is clear: Red Bull absolutely does not want rain in Silverstone, given its minimal downforce levels. The Ferrari drivers, on the other hand, run much more downforce and could benefit from changing weather conditions.

The same degradation pattern plays out in the midfield. Lance Stroll looks competitive in the graphics below, but deeper analysis shows he had the highest tyre degradation per lap of anyone in the field. The Canadian started strong but fell off a cliff later on, suggesting he might be less competitive on Sunday than the long-run table implies. Fernando Alonso’s more stable long-run pace and better starting position (P7) paint a more realistic picture for Aston Martin.

Finally, Oliver Bearman displayed encouraging long-run performance on Friday, but the Haas driver will start from P18 due to his red-flag infringement, when he crashed while entering the pitlane.

The young British driver’s 10-place grid penalty (plus four penalty points on his superlicence) is a significant setback, as both his qualifying performance and race pace were very promising. He now has a mountain to climb on Sunday.

Photos from British GP – Race