Is Isack Hadjar too good for Red Bull to ignore in F1 2026?

If Isack Hadjar was an early frontrunner for the 2026 Red Bull seat alongside Max Verstappen, then his breakthrough performance over the Zandvoort race weekend, taking a maiden podium from fourth on the grid, has surely made him the runaway favourite.

Hadjar came into the Racing Bulls squad only after Red Bull relieved Sergio Perez of his duties and tried Liam Lawson – and soon after, Yuki Tsunoda – as his replacement. The 2024 F2 runner-up was hailed as a big talent but there were lingering question marks within Red Bull over his readiness for the big leagues. In fact, Hadjar shared some of those concerns, telling Motorsport.com last October – before his promotion was confirmed – that there was no way of knowing if he was ready due to his lack of F1 testing.

Those questions have since been emphatically answered with Hadjar having the upper hand at Racing Bulls over Liam Lawson as he finds himself 10th in the drivers’ championship after Zandvoort. And while the 20-year-old Frenchman was something of a hothead on the radio during his time in F3 and F2, he has also displayed a new level of maturity as he bounced back from an awful formation lap exit on his Melbourne debut to become one of the most consistent performers on the grid, not in the least driven by exemplary work ethic and fierce self-criticism.

Hadjar’s meteoric rise is good news for Red Bull, because its search for a long-term team-mate to Max Verstappen is still ongoing. Lawson was bafflingly sent back to Racing Bulls after just two disastrous weekends, and while the New Zealander has since found his feet at the satellite team to keep Hadjar honest, it doesn’t seem likely that he will get a second Red Bull chance this soon.

The biggest question Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies and advisor Helmut Marko will need to answer is what to do with Tsunoda, who has occupied the seat since Japan. After scoring three points for Racing Bulls, the Japanese driver has only added nine more points to his tally as he remains 19th in the drivers’ standings, with only scoreless Alpine drivers Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan behind him. Meanwhile, Verstappen is third on 205 points and the Racing Bulls drivers have also emphatically outscored him.

Red Bull Racing’s difficult car has made it hard for the organisation to compare Yuki Tsunoda’s performances with its other drivers

Photo by: Andrea Diodato / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Not repeating the same mistakes

This is where it gets tricky, because there is no valid way to compare Tsunoda and the candidates to potentially replace him next year. Like those before him, Tsunoda has struggled mightily to get his head around the recalcitrant and unbalanced Red Bull, which only Verstappen appears to be able to drive. And, after a sizeable qualifying accident in Imola, he also fell behind on upgrades, having only recently gotten back on par with the Dutchman.

It is worth remembering that Tsunoda had been earning the same plaudits at Racing Bulls that Hadjar is receiving now, having made huge progress over his time at the Anglo-Italian team to become its de facto team leader. Tsunoda qualified fifth for the season opening Australian Grand Prix – with Hadjar in 11th – and was sixth in the China sprint race won by Lewis Hamilton. Quite how far the 25-year-old would have gone without his “promotion” is anyone’s guess, but what is certain is that he hasn’t suddenly forgotten how to drive.

By the same token, there is no guarantee that Hadjar would have fared any better in the RB21 than Tsunoda has. And adding to the unknowns, 2026 will feature all-new technical regulations. While Red Bull will always keep developing its machinery around its four-time world champion, perhaps the move away from the ground-effect will widen its operating window and make it easier to adjust to. Whether that would benefit Tsunoda or indeed Hadjar won’t be apparent until long after its driver choice has been set in stone.

There is one line of thinking that questions whether Hadjar should even want to be promoted to Red Bull given the struggles of his predecessors, but there seems no way the ambitious Parisian can be expected to say no, or whether the team would even take no for an answer.

Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies and advisor Helmut Marko are expected to make a call on 2026 by the end of October

Photo by: Kym Illman / Getty Images

Marko gave one clear indication about his current thinking in Zandvoort, by telling us “Isack is different” than the others, by which he meant he believes the Frenchman is better equipped to withstand the pressure of the “cursed” second Red Bull seat.

On one hand, you could argue Hadjar simply has a bigger upside because of his relative lack of experience, and thus more headroom to develop compared to fifth-year driver Tsunoda. But on the other hand, Red Bull will also be keen to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again by burning up its talent pool before it is truly ready. Mekies’ predecessor at the Red Bull junior team, Franz Tost, always swore by the tenet of giving youngsters three years to develop into well rounded F1 drivers.

As Red Bull gets up to speed with its in-house power units in 2026 as part of a vast regulatory change, perhaps it’s not in a major rush to tinker with its driver line-ups as well, and there is merit in the idea of keeping its four-car driver roster stable for another year after several seasons of instability.

Another factor in its decision is the rise of its fifth driver in the queue, Arvid Lindblad, who is highly rated within Red Bull and destined for the top. Lindblad’s F1 debut will likely materialise if Tsunoda does get replaced, as it seems unlikely the 25-year-old will go back to the second team again, having already spent over four seasons there. If Red Bull doesn’t pull the trigger, then the British Swede would stay on the sidelines for one more year, with his presence as a reserve driver putting pressure on the incumbents and giving Red Bull a ready-made replacement if needed.

Racing Bulls qualifying head-to-head

ISACK HADJAR	1-2 (1-1 without sprints)	YUKI TSUNODA
11 (+0.166s in Q2)	Australia	5
15 (no lap time)	China (sprint)	8
7	China	9 (+0.559s in Q3)

ISACK HADJAR	12-3 (10-3 without sprints)	LIAM LAWSON
7	Japan	14 (+0.131s in Q2)
12	Bahrain	17 (+0.574s in Q1 – DRS issue)
14 (+0.227s in Q2)	Saudi Arabia	12
9	Miami (sprint)	14 (+0.602s in SQ2)
11	Miami	15 (+0.376s in Q2 – battery issue)
9	Emilia Romagna	16 (+0.126s in Q1)
6	Monaco	8 (+0.206s in Q3)
9	Spain	13 (+0.302s in Q2)
9	Canada	19 (+0.314s in Q1)
13 (+0.185s in Q2)	Austria	6
13	Great Britain	16 (+0.263s in Q1)
9	Belgium (sprint)	11 (+0.081s in SQ2)
8	Belgium	9 (+0.018s in Q3)
10 (+0.094s in Q3)	Hungary	9
4	Netherlands	8 (+0.292s in Q3)

Time is on Red Bull’s side

The good thing for Red Bull is that time is on its side. All its drivers are under lock and key, meaning the organisation can move them around as it sees fit, as the brutal Lawson-Tsunoda swap proved. Marko suggested a decision is due around the Mexican Grand Prix in October, giving Tsunoda at least five more grands prix weekends to show Red Bull that he can be their man.

Technically, Red Bull doesn’t have to decide until the start of the new campaign, but Mekies explained a decision will come before the end of the season to avoid keeping its drivers in the dark for too long. And while Hadjar’s emotional podium is making headlines, he says its decision will be driven by ratio, not emotion.

“As much as we like the emotion of the race-by-race feeling, we have one feeling in Budapest and have another feeling here,” Mekies explained. “The truth is, if you look at it from a Red Bull perspective, they are our drivers, we have them all under contract. It’s only us making the decisions. Why would you put yourself under pressure based on one result or another?

“So, the simple truth is that we’ll take our time. There’s nine races to go. I’m not telling you that we’ll wait until the last race, because also there is a dynamic by which you want to let your driver know. But we have time. We’re not in any hurry. We’re lucky to have Yuki in the car, we have Racing Bulls, which is working very well, and we can also evaluate our young drivers.”

Getting closer to Verstappen

So, what could change between now and the end of October in the balance of power between the candidates for the seat? And what does Tsunoda need to do to fend of Hadjar’s challenge?

“You can always do more. Always,” Mekies replied. “We can do more, he can do more. We are trying everything we can to support. I think it’s still a positive trend. Yuki took a real step forward in Spa and also in Budapest in terms of gap with Max. Today, he’s P9 and with a bit more luck with the safety car he could have been P8 or P7.

So, I think we just want to see him continue to progress, continue to close the gap to Max. That’s the main parameter. And continue to score points, because that’s ultimately what it is about.

“Liam is making a lot of progress at Racing Bulls, Isack has been doing an extraordinary job since the start of the season and continues to surprise us every race. If you look at it from Red Bull’s point of view, it’s hard to see why we would be in a hurry to make this decision.”