F1 driver market – Who is tied down for 2026?

With plenty of the talk around the British Grand Prix surrounding the future of Max Verstappen and George Russell, Formula 1 ‘silly season’ is seemingly upon us once again.

Much like seeing the first Easter egg hit the supermarket shelves on 27 December, the stage of the F1 season when discussions and theories over the next season’s driver line-up appears to get earlier and earlier with each passing year.

There are still several variables and a host of unknowns for the 2026 grid so, as we approach the second half of the current campaign, the question remains the same: ‘Who goes where?’

There are a number of major factors at play that will ultimately determine who will be driving where – if at all – next year.

Here, Motorsport.com takes a look at who could have the most impact on the makeup of the 2026 grid.

The Max factor

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Reigning world champion Verstappen may have a contract with Red Bull until 2028, but it is an open secret in the F1 paddock that his deal contains a number of performance-based break clauses.

While Verstappen has put in some standout performances so far in 2026, it is expected that not all of those clauses have been met, and he would therefore be able to discuss his options – although there remains plenty of moving parts.

Christian Horner’s removal as Red Bull team principal, the untested Ford-assisted Red Bull Powertrains programme for next year and the relative performance of McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes, as well as the fact Verstappen is undoubtedly the number-one driver in his current team, will all feed into the decision.

Merecedes team principal Toto Wolff has long been a keen – and rather public – admirer of Verstappen and could look to pounce if the situation arises, and that seemingly is the only open door to the Dutchman in a top team, should he be looking for a move.

The second seat at Red Bull is also intriguing given the struggles recent incumbents have had – Yuki Tsunoda is out of contract this year and unlikely to have done enough to stay, while Isack Hadjar’s impressive displays for sister team Racing Bulls could see the Frenchman make the switch.

Russell and bustle

George Russell, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Verstappen’s situation is likely to have an immediate impact on Russell, who is yet to ink an extension to his Mercedes deal, which expires at the end of the current season. He and Verstappen famously do not see eye to eye on many things, but could Wolff get them singing from the same Silver Arrows hymn sheet?

If not, Russell could also look elsewhere – with Verstappen’s Red Bull seat needing a replacement, while a switch to Aston Martin, with its first Adrian Newey-designed car set to hit the track in 2026, has also been mooted.

Across the garage at Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli could also face an uncertain few weeks given his own contract also comes to an end this year. The rookie has caught the eye at times but is struggling for form at the moment – will Wolff keep faith or aim to park the teenager elsewhere on the grid to gain vital experience?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Erik Junius

New kids on the block

There are two extra seats for 2026, with Cadillac preparing to enter F1 as its 11th team.

While unlikely to be able to attract a driver currently contracted to a top squad, the GM-backed project does have deep pockets as it looks to build from the ground up.

Rumours have been rife for months that former Red Bull driver Sergio Perez is a preferred option and could be announced shortly as the first name in the Cadillac team for its debut year.

Another experienced pilot linked with the team is Valtteri Bottas, currently the third driver at Mercedes, while the likes of Mick Schumacher, Zhou Guanyu and American Jak Crawford – the current second-placed driver in the Formula 2 championship – will be staying close to their phones in the coming days and weeks.