The tantalising prospect that the 2025 drivers’ championship may yet become a three-way fight arose following Max Verstappen’s back-to-back wins in the last two rounds.
But despite the sudden progress he has made, the situation remains extremely tough. He lies 69 points off the championship lead with seven rounds remaining.
The situation compares neatly with the challenge his championship rival Lando Norris faced as last year’s season neared its halfway point. He fell 69 points behind Verstappen and had twice as many events to close the gap – 14 – yet had made little progress by the end of the season.
Norris in 2024
Verstappen left last year’s Spanish Grand Prix still looking like the solid championship favourite. His seventh win from the first 10 races gave him a healthy lead over Norris, whose only victory had come partly thanks to a well-timed Safety Car appearance in Miami, and had claimed his first pole position of the season in Spain.
At this stage in the season there were 14 rounds remaining. Norris, 69 points behind, was emerging as Verstappen’s closest championship rival.
Verstappen clearly knew a threat when he saw one coming. At the very next round in Austria the pair went toe-to-toe, colliding while disputing the lead. It set the tone for what was to follow.
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Far from making immediate inroads into that 69-point lead, Norris fell further behind to begin with. Verstappen frustrated his efforts to gain ground, even on days when the McLaren was clearly the quicker car.
When Norris took commanding wins in Zandvoort and Singapore, Verstappen prevented him from doing serious damage to his lead, following his rival home on both occasions. Verstappen’s on-track moves went beyond borderline at times, notably in Mexico, where he forced his rival off in a high-speed corner, incurring a penalty but delaying Norris long enough to prevent him challenging for victory.
The upshot was even though Verstappen failed to win any of the 10 grands prix after his victory in Spain, Norris was unable to make serious headway. Finally, in Brazil, Verstappen’s improbable victory from 17th on the grid all but finished off Norris’s title hopes. He put a lock on the title at the next round in Las Vegas.
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Today Verstappen faces the same points deficit Norris had after the Spanish Grand Prix last year. But apart from the points gap, the two scenarios could hardly be more different.
First, it is far from clear Verstappen will have a sufficiently competitive car over the remaining races to challenge the McLarens. However his victories in the last two races have shown the Red Bull is potentially in better shape now than it has been at any stage in the season. Laurent Mekies’ leadership appears to have had a beneficial effect.
Second, Verstappen has half as many races to make up that 69-point deficit. The maximum points score remaining is 199; when Norris was that far behind last year there were 396 up for grabs.
Third, the championship as a whole was much more competitive. Norris struggled to close the gap to Verstappen partly because Ferrari were often in contention for podium positions and victories in the second half of the year.
Finally, Verstappen is facing not one championship rival, but two. He is 69 points behind Piastri and 44 adrift of Norris.
This could potentially play in Verstappen’s favour. Piastri and Norris are fighting each other as well as him. Meanwhile he knows he has the full support of team mate Yuki Tsunoda, who said he held back from attacking the car ahead of him at the last race because he did not want to risk letting Norris by.
Last year Norris gained just six points over the course of 14 rounds compared to Verstappen. On his current form, expect Verstappen to gain quite a bit more than that: potentially enough to force McLaren to reconsider whether they can afford to keep giving both drivers an equal chance in the title fight.
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