Strategy Corner: How Max Verstappen can defend against McLaren to win F1 Miami GP

Miami’s temporary circuit around the Hard Rock Stadium is divisive, but the sharp end of the grid for the 2025 grand prix offers tantalising possibilities for an exciting race.

While McLaren team boss Andrea Stella has publicly blown a raspberry at Red Bull’s underdog “narrative”, the fact remains that Max Verstappen starts from pole in the often troublesome RB21 – while Stella’s drivers made key errors, which have left them out of position (albeit only slightly) on the grid.

This track has three DRS zones and the second one, which leads along the curving section of sector two towards Turn 11, has been extended this year by 75 metres. Judging by events in the sprint, this hasn’t been hugely significant in terms of generating overtaking opportunities.

But it may yet have an impact on the race. Several drivers who chanced their arms into Turn 11 came to grief, most significantly Liam Lawson, whose attempted pass on Fernando Alonso put the Aston Martin in the wall and generated a Safety Car deployment, leading to Lando Norris winning rather than team-mate Oscar Piastri. 

What can Max Verstappen do to defeat Lando Norris?

Qualifying was a fascinatingly close affair in which less than two tenths of a second covered the first five cars, and the gap between the top three was measured in hundredths rather than tenths. Indeed, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff reckoned Andrea Kimi Antonelli could have been on pole, rather than third, but for a small mistake at Turn 1 on his Q3 lap.

For Verstappen it’s going to be a question of staying ahead of the McLarens, particularly second-placed Norris, at the start – and if he can tick that box, keep them behind. Not as straightforward a task as it was in Suzuka, thanks to that long back straight and DRS, but maintaining track position is the most powerful weapon in his armoury against the MCL39’s well-documented ability to be gentle on its rear tyres.

Lando Norris, McLaren, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

But Norris has backed himself to make a good start and P2 gives him the inside line into the first corner if he can get away from the line quick enough. Piastri usurped Antonelli similarly in the sprint race, though the Merc rookie felt hard done-by.

Here we have another element previously unseen in a grand prix this year. Antonelli is a fast learner and has banked the experience of losing pole advantage at Turn 1 in the sprint.

His third place on the grid for the grand prix means he is also likely to play a role at Turn 1 on Sunday – plus he will be eager to make amends for being bullied out of the way on Saturday by Piastri, whom he starts alongside again. This injects a fresh dynamic into the possibilities on the opening lap.

From here, expect the race to settle quickly into a tyre-management exercise. The likelihood remains that this will be a one-stop race even though Pirelli has brought compounds a step softer than last year – so the C4, which was the soft in 2024, will now be the medium.

“Here it’s all about thermal degradation and overheating,” said Pirelli motorsport director Mario Isola. “So keeping the tyres in the right working range, not overstressing the tyres means that you can keep a good performance.

“It will be interesting to see which is the race pace they will decide. One stop is possible with medium-hard.

“Last year we had only one driver that did a soft-medium strategy [Sauber’s Zhou Guanyu, who started on mediums and changed to softs on lap 28 of 57] and he was able to do all the race, but medium-hard is possible.”

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Isola reckoned that the performance differential between the two likely race compounds was very small, in the region of two to three tenths of a second.

The majority of the grid have been able to save two sets of hard tyres, just as a precaution against Safety Car deployments – which are highly likely in Miami, given the prevalence of corners laid out as ‘mistake generators’. All except sixth-place starter Carlos Sainz and Alonso have at least one new medium-compound set to use, and these are the likeliest starting sets.

Last year only five drivers chose not to start on mediums, and just one of those – Lewis Hamilton – was on the front half of the grid. Given dry conditions, it’s reasonable to expect the 2025 event to play out similarly, with medium the de facto choice up front while some in the second half of the grid go for an alternative, most likely the hard.

What if it rains?

The Sunday forecast gave a 40% chance of rain around the time of the grand prix, which could add another dimension to race strategy.

In the sprint the intermediates were almost cooked by the time the lap count entered double digits as a dry line began to form.

“What is interesting is that with a drying track – and the track was drying quite quickly, or at least we had a dry line quite quickly – the wear on the front-right was quite high,” said Isola.

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Photo by: Ferrari

“So the reason why, at a certain point, the track was drying but the lap times were still the same, not improving, was because of the high wear on the front-right tyre that was generating understeer. And so drivers were not able to improve the lap time.

“When they decided they weren’t far from the crossover [the point at which the slick tyre is faster than wet/intermediate], probably one second or so, that was the right moment [to change to slicks] because with the intermediate tyre they weren’t able to extract any additional performance. And that happened after 10-12 laps so that’s an important indication.

“If we have a drying track but still a chance of rain, obviously they have to consider an additional pitstop to fit another set of intermediate tyres.”

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