Max Verstappen scored his second win in as many races at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Is this the beginning of a late charge for the title?
The numbers are not encouraging for Verstappen but they look an awful lot better than they did two races ago when he trailed leader Oscar Piastri by 104 points – more than four grand prix victories.
Since then Verstappen has slashed his deficit to just 69 points. There is still up to 199 points available for each driver to win over the remaining races.
But that theoretical maximum makes the task facing Verstappen look much easier than it is. What matters is how quickly Verstappen can take points off Piastri.
Even if Verstappen were to win all the remaining grands prix and sprint races, Piastri would still be champion if he finished second to his rival every time. In that scenario Piastri would be champion by 17 points.
That is obviously not a realistic situation but it gives a sense of how far behind Verstappen is in real terms.
Verstappen is clearly in a more competitive situation now than he was before the summer break. In the three races since then he’s taken two wins and one second place.
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He and the Red Bull management have talked about the difference made since Laurent Mekies took charge in place of Christian Horner and the successful new approach the team has taken to setting up its troublesome RB21.
Those gains enabled Verstappen to take his victories in Monza and Baku – with no small measure of driving excellence, of course, particularly in yesterday’s qualifying session. But big questions remain about how competitive the RB21 will be at other circuits.
The last two tracks are among the fastest on the F1 calendar. Do Red Bull have an answer for the high downforce demands of Singapore, which was a bogey track for them even when they were dominating F1? Or the kind of medium-high speed tracks like Losail where McLaren have been so strong previously?
Those are significant unknowns, the answers to which may yet make a title bid for Verstappen unrealistic. However he has one key advantage in his favour as he bids to hunt down the McLaren drivers.
Piastri and Norris have taken points off each other all season long. McLaren have indicated they remain committed to allowing both drivers to fight each other for the championship.
There’s no sign that might change any time soon. Piastri’s retirement from today’s race allowed Norris to close within 25 points of his team mate.
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Verstappen doesn’t have to worry about this kind of situation with his team mate. Yuki Tsunoda has not looked like a threat to him all year.
But Baku brought another encouraging development in that respect. For the first time this year Tsunoda was actually fast enough to take points off McLaren. That also bodes well for Verstappen’s chances over the remaining races.
It’s highly likely that today’s result represents a nadir that McLaren are unlikely to repeat before the end of the year. But the race gave a further indication that Red Bull are getting on top of their car.
Perhaps they have done it just in time for Verstappen to have a shot at retaining the drivers’ championship he’s won over the previous four years. If so, we potentially have a highly exciting final seven rounds ahead.
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