The Monaco Grand Prix has long been Formula 1’s most iconic race.
Although the main event on Sunday has tended to be processional, it hasn’t always been without drama, whether due to rain, strategy blunders or crashes. And Saturday’s qualifying hour has invariably been one of the most thrilling of the year precisely because the likely reward for capturing pole position is so high.
That will change this year as F1 has decided the race should be run to different tyre rules than every other round of the championship. It’s likely to create the opportunity for more changes of position through the pits, if not on the track. Whether you welcome it or not, expect the rule tweak to be a focus of attention this weekend.
Do more tyre changes fix everything?
F1’s new Monaco-only rule is its knee-jerk reaction to last year’s processional race. A first-lap red flag allowed drivers to complete their mandatory tyre change immediately, and thereafter they circulated behind Charles Leclerc without a single change of position in the top 10.
Seeing drivers nurse their tyres, lapping several seconds off the pace, was soporifically dull. The makers of Drive to Survive may have tried to pass it off as an epic nail-biter but F1 decided real change was needed.
“This year we have a red flag on the first lap, and everyone has automatically made their pit stop,” said F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali afterwards. “We must not let that happen again. We must anticipate such scenarios better and cover them with the rules.”
But anyone who took that to mean F1 was finally going to prevent drivers from completing their mandatory pit stops under red flag conditions, which has been spoiling races and aggravating unlucky drivers for years, was to be disappointed. Instead it has brought in a special rule, for the Monaco Grand Prix only, forcing drivers to use at least three different sets of tyres. The upshot is, drivers will have to change tyres twice instead of once in Monaco.
The rule is not only arbitrary, but illogical. It creates a nonsensical situation in which, at the track where tyre degradation is lower than anywhere else and the race distance is shorter than anywhere else, teams must use more tyres than anywhere else.
The series has a track record of adopting rules which immediately produce unintended consequences and have to be revised or dropped. Has F1 fixed any bugs in its latest brainwave in advance, or has it dreamed up another blunder to rival elimination qualifying and double points finales?
As with sprint races, if F1 had real confidence in this change, it would have implemented it for every race. Whether it will ‘work’ by any definition remains to be seen. F1 should heed the words of last year’s winner: “We’ve got to be open-minded,” said Leclerc. “We need to see if that actually makes a difference or not and be open to change back if that’s not the right solution.”
Are Red Bull still weak on the streets?
While Red Bull dominated Formula 1 from late 2022 into the early races of 2024, they looked vulnerable when they visited tracks like Monaco and Singapore – true street courses on real roads, rather than the purpose-laid surfaces in Miami and Jeddah. Verstappen was only sixth at this race last year and failed to reach Q3 in Singapore the year before.
He finished second in Singapore last year. He was far behind dominant winner Norris, but was this nonetheless the beginning of a change in form for Red Bull on bumpy, slow courses?
As usual, don’t expect to get a read on this until Saturday. Red Bull have tended to lap further away from their true pace on Fridays at events this year than most of their rivals, most notably McLaren.
Leclerc’s woes
Last year’s Monaco Grand Prix winner returns home knowing his chance of repeating his victory is not great. The Ferrari is competitive in race trim, but less so in qualifying, and that is the opposite of the properties required to be competitive in Monaco.
With the field so close, it’s entirely possible Ferrari will find themselves in a fight to reach Q3 again.
Have Aston Martin made a breakthrough?
Aston Martin have had a difficult start to 2025 but the extensive upgrade they introduced at the last race appears to have been a genuine breakthrough. Having averaged 1.22 seconds off the pace over the opening six rounds they closed to within 0.76s at Imola.
However that figure may be flattered by the fact they set their fastest times in qualifying last week on the medium tyre compound. Unusually, that proved quicker over a single lap than the soft tyre which most teams used. Those teams avoided qualifying on the medium tyre because they wanted to avoid the very strategic trap that Aston Martin fell into in the grand prix, where their drivers fell out of the top 10 and failed to score points.
As ever, Monaco is not a great guide to how competitive teams are. But if the AMR25 is up to it, watch out for fireworks from Fernando Alonso in qualifying as he bids to end his 2025 points drought.
Rain in qualifying?
Monaco is challenging enough in the dry but drivers may face the added complication of rain this weekend. Some forecasts put the chances of rain on Saturday as high as 50% in the hours before qualifying. However this is likely to be a brief shower and it may well pass before the decisive session begins.
There is a slightly lower chance of rain during the three qualifying sessions but a sunny day is expected for the 82nd Monaco Grand Prix.
F1’s missing qualifying rule?
For the second year running, Formula 2 and Formula 3 are using a different rule for their qualifying sessions, which some Formula 1 drivers have previously suggested should be used in the top tier as well, particularly following incidents in Monaco.
Any F2 or F3 drivers who cause red flags in qualifying sessions can lose their fastest lap times as a penalty. This happened to Kush Maini when he crashed at Imola last week, triggering red flags which prevented several drivers from being able to complete their final qualifying laps.
The absence of a similar rule in F1 looks increasingly strange as it becomes more familiar in its junior categories. Expect it to come up again if we see a repeat of the Monaco qualifying dramas of 2022, 2021, 2014 or 2006.
Are you going to the Monaco Grand Prix?
If you’re heading to Monaco for this weekend’s race, we want to hear from you:
Who do you think will be the team to beat in the Monaco Grand Prix? Have your say below.
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